How Obasanjo, Others Wasted $388bn Defending Naira Before Tinubu’s Reform, IMPI Reveals

A policy think tank, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), has claimed that Nigeria spent an estimated $388 billion defending the naira over a 23-year period before the administration of President Bola Tinubu unified the country’s foreign exchange windows, describing the expenditure as wasteful.

The group said its findings showed that successive administrations continued to intervene heavily in the foreign exchange market between 2000 and 2023, yet failed to halt the persistent depreciation of the naira against the United States dollar.

In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI argued that the decision by the Tinubu administration to harmonise the multiple foreign exchange windows had significantly reduced the cost of defending the local currency while improving market stability.

According to the group, Nigeria had made defending the naira a standing government policy for more than two decades, with little success despite huge financial commitments.

It stated: “Nigeria’s foreign exchange ecosystem is now celebrated worldwide for its predictability and stability, directly due to the policy of harmonising foreign exchange windows. Before the Tinubu administration made that decision, Nigeria had made the defence of the local currency, the naira, a state policy. Yet the naira continued to depreciate against the dollar, no matter how much was spent defending it.”

IMPI said available records indicated that the Federal Government spent about $388 billion defending the naira between 2000 and 2023, representing an average annual expenditure of $16.8 billion.

Breaking down the figures, the think tank said the administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo spent about $60 billion over eight years, while the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s government expended approximately $58 billion in three years.

It added that former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration spent about $145 billion within five years, while former President Muhammadu Buhari’s government committed around $125 billion over eight years.

The group maintained that despite the enormous interventions, the naira continued to weaken substantially throughout the period.

“This wasted $388bn, as it were, should have been accounted for in the nation’s external reserves and deployed directly to build the economy rather than being filtered away,” the statement said.

It noted that the official exchange rate moved from about N22 to the dollar in 1999 to around N460 by May 2023, while the parallel market rate rose from roughly N80 to N780 within the same period.

Comparing the period before and after the foreign exchange reforms, IMPI said the Tinubu administration adopted what it described as a more sustainable exchange rate management model.

According to the group, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention in the foreign exchange market amounted to about $7.8 billion between 2024 and 2025, adding that the naira appreciated by 7.14 per cent within a 12-month period in 2025.

“Our comparative analysis of naira defence spending between 2000 and 2023 and between 2023 and now shows that the Tinubu administration deployed a stronger foreign exchange management model,” the statement added.

The policy group further argued that the unification of the foreign exchange market, alongside the enforcement of the “Nigeria First” local content policy, had made imported goods more expensive while encouraging local production and improving the country’s trade balance.

It claimed the policy shift helped Nigeria record a trade surplus exceeding N6.69 trillion by the end of 2025.

Beyond the foreign exchange market, IMPI also linked Nigeria’s fiscal challenges before 2023 to what it described as years of populist economic policies pursued by previous administrations.

The organisation said its investigation into the country’s fiscal history showed that the economic crisis inherited in 2023 stemmed largely from policies implemented between 1999 and 2015.

According to the statement, the administration of former President Goodluck Jonathan particularly reflected weak fiscal management despite unprecedented oil earnings.

IMPI said Nigeria generated an estimated $401.4 billion in crude oil revenue during the Obasanjo administration, between $120 billion and $130 billion under the Yar’Adua administration, and more than $454 billion during Jonathan’s tenure.

It added that the three administrations collectively earned about $994.4 billion in oil revenue but left behind combined external and domestic debts estimated at $65.49 billion, alongside foreign reserves of about $29.61 billion.

The group described the outcome as disappointing, arguing that the huge revenues did not translate into stronger national finances or economic development.