80% of Nigeria’s Crude Oil Exported Despite Local Refinery Demand

Oil producers in Nigeria exported nearly 80 per cent of the country’s crude oil output in the first quarter of 2026 despite increasing demand from local refineries, latest industry figures have shown.

Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) indicated that out of the 139.93 million barrels of crude produced between January and March, only 28.5 million barrels were supplied to domestic refineries.

The figure represents about 20 per cent of the nation’s total crude production during the period, leaving more than 111 million barrels exported to the international market.

The development comes amid growing refining activities in the country, particularly from the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery and other local processing plants seeking increased crude supply.

Under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) arrangement, the NUPRC had earmarked 61.9 million barrels for local refining within the quarter. Oil producers also reportedly committed to supplying about 68.7 million barrels during the same period.

However, actual deliveries to domestic refiners fell far below expectations.

According to the commission’s breakdown, Nigeria produced 50.45 million barrels of crude oil in January, but local refineries received only 9.2 million barrels, representing about 18 per cent of output.

In February, crude production stood at 41.93 million barrels, while domestic refiners got 9.1 million barrels, roughly 22 per cent of the total volume produced.

Production later rose to 47.93 million barrels in March, but only 10.1 million barrels were delivered locally, leaving the bulk of the crude for export.

Further analysis of the DCSO performance showed that producers in some months offered more crude than the volumes allocated for domestic refining, yet actual supply remained significantly lower.

In January, for instance, the commission allocated 22.6 million barrels for local refining and producers offered 25.3 million barrels. Despite this, only 9.2 million barrels eventually reached domestic refineries.

Similarly, in March, producers exceeded the allocation target by offering 23.6 million barrels against the 18.8 million barrels allocated, but actual supply rose only marginally to 10.1 million barrels.

The regulator attributed the persistent shortfall largely to pricing disagreements between crude producers and local refiners.

According to the commission, the crude supply arrangement currently operates under a “willing buyer, willing seller” framework, which continues to affect negotiations and supply outcomes.

The NUPRC stated that the overall supply conversion rate for domestic refining stood between 36 and 46 per cent at the end of the first quarter.

Industry reports also showed that the Dangote Refinery relied heavily on imported crude oil throughout 2025 due to inadequate local supply.

The refinery reportedly sourced millions of barrels from countries including the United States, Brazil and Angola to sustain operations amid difficulties in securing sufficient feedstock locally.

Analysts say the continued export of large volumes of crude despite growing local refining capacity raises concerns over Nigeria’s ability to maximise the benefits of domestic refining, reduce fuel import dependence and strengthen energy security.

Despite the supply gaps, the NUPRC maintained that it remained committed to implementing the Petroleum Industry Act and supporting the Federal Government’s drive toward energy sufficiency and industrial growth.