2026 SCP: NiMet Predicts Longer Rains for Kwara, Prolonged August Break in Lagos

2026 SCP: NiMet Predicts Longer Rains for Kwara, Prolonged August Break in Lagos

FELICIA OLADELE, Abuja

Kwara State is expected to experience a longer-than-normal rainy season in 2026, while Lagos may witness both an extended rainy season and a prolonged August break, according to the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) released by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet).

The forecast was highlighted on Tuesday in Abuja by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Mr. Festus Keyamo (SAN), during his keynote address at the official presentation of the SCP.

Keyamo said the 2026 prediction, developed using global climate models such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), points to a neutral ENSO phase with implications for rainfall distribution, dry spells and temperature patterns across the country.

For Kwara State, the outlook shows a mixed pattern. While a longer-than-normal rainy season is expected, parts of the state may record below-normal rainfall during the year.

Kwara is also listed among states that could experience moderate dry spells at the beginning of the season and severe dry spells lasting up to 25 days during the June–July period.

In Lagos, NiMet predicts a longer rainy season as well as a delayed end to the rains. However, the state is also expected to experience a severe and prolonged August break, with dry conditions likely to last between 28 and 40 days.

Keyamo warned that early rainfall in some states should not be mistaken for the start of the farming season, urging farmers and other stakeholders to rely strictly on official guidance.

“Those engaged in rainfall agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities in Nigeria are therefore advised to refer to the predicted onset dates in this publication and consult with your local government for proper guidance,” he said.

The minister stressed that climate change continues to affect food security, infrastructure and economic planning, making weather information critical for national development.

“The impacts of climate change are daily realities of modern times, shaping the nation’s safety, economic decisions, national security planning and food security,” he said.

He added that the Federal Government now treats climate data and early warning systems as strategic tools for development, noting that the Seasonal Climate Prediction document serves as a trusted national reference for policymakers, farmers and investors.

“Climate science is fundamental to sustainable development. Any developmental effort that ignores it will be costly and ultimately unsustainable,” Keyamo said.

The minister reaffirmed the government’s support for NiMet, pledging continued investment in climate services to ensure timely and accurate weather information for Nigerians.

He urged state governments, farmers and the private sector in Kwara, Lagos and other parts of the country to carefully study the 2026 forecast and use it for proper planning, especially in agriculture and water resource management.