Nigeria Faces 31,400 Heat Deaths as Report Warns of El Niño

Nigeria could record 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 if a strong El Niño phenomenon develops, a new report has warned.

Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab projected that an exceptionally strong El Niño could cause 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide during the six-month period.

Nigeria could account for nearly half of the 66,800 projected deaths across four African countries identified as particularly vulnerable to extreme heat.

The researchers urged governments to prepare hospitals, establish cooling centres and issue early warnings. They also called for measures to protect outdoor workers from dangerous temperatures.

The report identified Nigeria, Sudan, Niger and Chad as the African countries likely to suffer the highest heat-related mortality during the period.

Sudan could record 17,500 additional deaths, while the projections put Niger’s toll at 10,000 and Chad’s at 8,000.

With an estimated population of 237.5 million, Nigeria could face the highest number of additional heat-related deaths of any country under the projected scenario.

El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels. The phenomenon influences weather patterns across the world.

An exceptionally strong episode, known as a super El Niño, could intensify heat risks in already vulnerable regions.

The researchers linked the projected danger in the Sahel to rising temperatures, widespread poverty, unreliable electricity and limited access to cooling facilities.

They noted that more than 60 per cent of Nigeria’s population was estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025.

Frequent power cuts could also leave households struggling to cope with extreme temperatures, even in communities connected to the electricity grid.

According to the researchers, poorer populations face greater risks of heat-related deaths than people in wealthier regions experiencing similar temperatures. Limited financial resources often prevent vulnerable households from accessing cooling systems and other protective measures.

The warning comes as Europe grapples with a growing toll from extreme heat.

An estimated 50,000 people died from heat-related causes across Europe during the summer of 2026, according to separate research published in the journal Nature Health.

Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, and this summer was its hottest on record. Several countries experienced successive heatwaves and recorded new temperature highs.

The estimated death toll represents the highest number of excess heat-related deaths this century. It also exceeds the previous record of 29,000 deaths recorded during the summer of 2022.

Researchers from Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and the universities of Copenhagen, Venice and Bern contributed to the European estimates.

Italy, France, Spain, Germany and the United Kingdom recorded the highest numbers of excess deaths associated with the hot conditions.

Clair Barnes, a researcher at Imperial College London’s Centre for Environmental Policy and one of the authors of the papers, said the summer had proved exceptionally deadly.

“The summer of 2026 is likely to have been the worst on record for heat-related mortality across much of Europe,” she said.

The projections highlight the need for countries facing extreme heat to strengthen public health preparedness and protect vulnerable communities before temperatures rise further.

Nigeria’s projected exposure raises concerns about the ability of households with limited access to reliable electricity and cooling facilities to withstand prolonged periods of extreme heat.